John Ross, senior fellow of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China
- All studies show there is a negative long-term correlation between stock market performance and a country's economic growth and with China, this is particularly the case.
- There could be short-term effects, although the number of Chinese people holding shares is small.
George Magnus, senior independent economic adviser, UBS London
- The equity market wobble will not have a durable effect on the China economy.
- It is a setback for the government's attempts to introduce market reforms in the economy.
Louis Kuijs, chief economist, Greater China, RBS
- The negative effects of the slump in the stock market on the real economy are likely to be quite modest.
- The financial sector, which has been a recent engine of economic growth, could put pressure on the GDP growth target.
Oliver Barron, head of the China office of NSBO
- The property market revival and government-led infrastructure construction are likely to make up for any negative stock market impact in the second quarter.
- Only 6.8 percent of urban households have share accounts so there is no destruction of household wealth.
Zhu Ning, deputy director of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance
- The lack of a connection between the stock market and the real economy shows that it is a failed market.
- Firms may face a funding crisis as a result of the slump that could be bad for growth.
Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist and strategist with Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank
- If the government reaches for the investment lever to offset any impact from share market volatility it will put on hold the rebalancing of the economy.
- Increased investment in infrastructure could lead to a new crisis in local government debt.
Paul Gillis, professor of accounting at Guanghua School of Management at Peking University
- China's stock market is still too small to lead to a Wall Street Crash 1929 moment.
- If growth does slow it could make some of the Chinese stocks to look more overvalued than they do now.
(China Daily Africa Weekly 07/31/2015 page7)