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Fall impact

Updated: 2015-07-31 08:26
(China Daily Africa)

John Ross, senior fellow of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China

- All studies show there is a negative long-term correlation between stock market performance and a country's economic growth and with China, this is particularly the case.

- There could be short-term effects, although the number of Chinese people holding shares is small.

George Magnus, senior independent economic adviser, UBS London

- The equity market wobble will not have a durable effect on the China economy.

- It is a setback for the government's attempts to introduce market reforms in the economy.

Louis Kuijs, chief economist, Greater China, RBS

- The negative effects of the slump in the stock market on the real economy are likely to be quite modest.

- The financial sector, which has been a recent engine of economic growth, could put pressure on the GDP growth target.

Oliver Barron, head of the China office of NSBO

- The property market revival and government-led infrastructure construction are likely to make up for any negative stock market impact in the second quarter.

- Only 6.8 percent of urban households have share accounts so there is no destruction of household wealth.

Zhu Ning, deputy director of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance

- The lack of a connection between the stock market and the real economy shows that it is a failed market.

- Firms may face a funding crisis as a result of the slump that could be bad for growth.

Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist and strategist with Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank

- If the government reaches for the investment lever to offset any impact from share market volatility it will put on hold the rebalancing of the economy.

- Increased investment in infrastructure could lead to a new crisis in local government debt.

Paul Gillis, professor of accounting at Guanghua School of Management at Peking University

- China's stock market is still too small to lead to a Wall Street Crash 1929 moment.

- If growth does slow it could make some of the Chinese stocks to look more overvalued than they do now.

(China Daily Africa Weekly 07/31/2015 page7)

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