State of the economy

Dennis Dykes,

Chief economist of Nedbank in Johannesburg

Q3 forecast: N/A

2013 GDP forecast: 7.5 per cent

Africa's commodity producers are concerned that the nature of China's growth is changing.

What is at stake if China growth slows is the extra capacity African commodity producers have built up.

China's growth will markedly slow up to 2017.

Annabel Bishop,

Group economist for Investec South Africa

Q3 forecast: 7.2 percent

2013 GDP forecast: 7.5 percent

China's slowing growth will impact African commodity producers.

South Africa's trade deficit has already widened because of falling commodity prices caused by slowing Chinese demand.

Rising incomes should underpin the shift to a more service-sector economy.

Henry Bell,

First Secretary, Economic, British Embassy

Q3 forecast: N/A

2013 GDP forecast: 7.5 percent

China is in transition and there has been too much hysterical reporting about China's slowing growth.

Government reforms are likely to see growth fall in the short term.

If China does rebalance its economy its overall contribution to global GDP growth will fall.

Qian Liu,

Deputy director, China Service, The Economist Intelligence Unit

Q3 forecast: 7.5 percent

2013 GDP forecast: 7.5 percent

Forget about the magic double-digit growth but 7.5 percent is still very high internationally.

If the hukou system is reformed urbanization could still be a growth engine.

China's growth will still impact on the world and the next big theme could be major M&A activity in Europe and the US over the next 5 years.

Oliver Barron,

Head of the China office of London-based China economics research company NSBO

Q3 forecast: N/A

2013 GDP forecast: Slightly above 7.5 percent

China's growth is clearly slowing but in the short term there is only so much the government can accept.

To move to a consumption-driven economy China has to overturn a lot of momentum.

Slowing growth will affect African commodity producers but the Chinese will want to own assets there.

Zhu Ning,

Deputy director of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance at Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Q3 forecast: 7.8 percent

2013 GDP forecast: 7.6 percent

Local government debt and the problems stoked by the 2009 stimulus package remain a concern for economic growth.

Reform to banking and financial system are key to China's growth.

China's growth will continue to have a big impact on resource-rich economies.

George Magnus,

Senior independent economic adviser for UBS, London

Q3 forecast: 7.7 percent

2013 GDP forecast: 7.5 percent

Debt could be 250 percent this year but that alone is unlikely to cause the economy to slow down.

Short-term measures to tackle debt and excessive credit could slow progress on reform.

Slowing growth would have consequences for the world as a whole that it couldn't easily compensate for.

Louis Kuijs,

Chief China economist of RBS in Hong Kong

Q3 forecast: 7.5 percent

2013 GDP forecast: 7.5 percent

China has not run out of surplus labor since 30 percent of the population still lives in the countryside.

Growth will continue to be fueled by capital deepening and increasing knowhow of the workforce.

International economy is now highly sensitive to China.

( China Daily Africa Weekly 09/20/2013 page7)