China, the world and wealth, according to Mr Brics

China's leaders elected at the National People's Congress recently are trying to shift the country from being export driven to being focused more on domestic consumption, at the same time maintaining full employment and social stability.

O'Neill reckons that with China everything has to be kept in perspective. Its GDP of $8.3 trillion is more than half that of the US, so China growing by nearly 8 percent a year is analogous to the US growing nearly 4 percent, he says.

"I had assumed for the last three years that this decade, China would grow by around 7.5 percent and I am happy with that."

He says he is surprised by the weakness of retail sales this year that suggests consumption in China needs to grow a lot and may need more policy support.

But O'Neill says that assuming the government does achieve its policy aims eventually, that should mean China will succeed in doubling GDP and incomes this decade, something that will be good for the world.

Other BRICS countries need to concentrate on their own priorities rather than being preoccupied with China, because each has a lot to do, he says.

India needs to undertake substantial reform and improve its macro-economic conditions, he says. Russia needs to reduce its dependency on oil and improve the rule of law, and Brazil needs to become more competitive and allow for more investment outside commodities.

The last 12 months have been economically disappointing for some of the BRICS countries, especially Brazil and India, O'Neill says, and it is important that each does something to encourage stronger vitality and growth this year and next.

"I still think South Africa is quite fortunate enough to be in the group as economically it is rather small compared to the others."

He says its membership can be justified on the basis of its being a gateway to Africa, and if it can take a leading role in increasing trade links across the continent and improving the continent's infrastructure, this will bolster its credentials.

As a grouping, BRIC was institutionalized in September 2006 at the initiative of Russia, and the fifth summit is taking place in Durban, South Africa, from March 26.

O'Neill says he is awaiting the summit eagerly to see whether the formation of a development bank, foreshadowed at the summit in New Delhi last year, goes ahead.

"As of yet the BRICS group has not really achieved anything, hence the BRICS bank idea is so important for them as a collective force."

If the BRICS bank is announced, "this will be the beginning of an institution that sort of becomes a World Bank for their universe and the World Bank becomes less important for this huge sphere of influence".

Asked what BRICS can do to promote world economic recovery, O'Neill says Goldman Sachs has a measuring tool called a growth environment index that takes in 180 countries, which are scored on a scale of 0 to 10, 10 being the best.

In the last update, among BRICS members China's score was top at 5.4, Brazil's was 5.3, Russia's a little below that, and India's about 4.

O'Neill says all could learn from South Korea, which scored 7.9 and was ranked third. O'Neill says the lesson the BRICS countries can draw from this is the importance of broad and deep education, of making the best use of all technologies and of being flexible and adapting to change.

zhangchunyan@chinadaily.com.cn