China, West have much in common

EU is positioned to be effective catalyst of China's opening-up while the latter can be a force for European cohesiveness

The Chinese renaissance is one of the most significant factors of change globally. Will the reemergence of an ancient non-Western civilization be a disruptive force, or can China and the West shape a new international order in a genuinely cooperative relationship?

A third trajectory is in fact more probable. An essentially peaceful coexistence characterized by a mix of disputes, tensions but also negotiated agreements and varying levels of understanding could be the backdrop of Sino-Western relations.

Despite its low probability, the extreme scenario of a Sino-Western confrontation should not be totally ignored by analysts. The West as much as China, albeit for different reasons, could be the source of such a sad course of events.

In reaction to the ongoing redistribution of power, the conservative forces in the West could push for the containment of China with the objective of preserving unilateral Western dominance in global affairs. Such a posture would create an unnecessarily divided global village and increase the risk of escalation of what would become a Sino-US strategic rivalry.

In the event of severe and long-lasting economic difficulties in China, some in Beijing could make use of the nationalistic card to maintain social stability and domestic cohesiveness. But, despite the challenges it faces, the Chinese economy is still growing at more than 6.5 percent a year even as mass entrepreneurship, an innovative spirit and the globalization of the Chinese companies indicate that the nation has entered a transition from quantitative growth to qualitative and sustainable development.

Moreover, a more nationalistic tone would not necessarily mean an aggressive China, for history illustrates that neither militarism nor expansionism has been a defining feature of the country. In a Chinese context, nationalism could simply lead to some form of isolationism.

If one takes long-term history as a reference, China never really collapsed -- it merely shut itself off from its surroundings.

In another possible turn of events, it is China's resurgence that could hypothetically be at the source of Sino-Western antagonism. However, after what the country remembers as 100 years of humiliation in the aftermath of the Opium Wars there is no alarming sign of a vengeful political narrative targeting the West or Japan.

China did not blame others for its painful marginalization following the Industrial Revolution; it identified its own internal weaknesses and reemerged by reforming itself.

China aims to be relevant but not dominant; its quest for centrality should not be mistaken for a martial mobilization for global hegemony or even leadership.

If an antagonistic scenario is highly improbable, does it mean that cooperation will define the future of the Sino-Western relations?

In a series of crises, the West and China have indeed shown that they can have productive collaboration such as in UN peacekeeping missions, the fight against nuclear proliferation and the plan of action for the Iranian nuclear program, counter-terrorism and climate change. But while the two sides know how to cooperate when they have identified a common threat they also differ on the interpretation of a number of security and political issues.

Fundamentally, China behaves as a sovereign entity that has inherited the characteristics of a unique civilization. The Chinese renaissance is not about an absolute rupture with the past but a balance between new forms of governance and ancient sociopolitical practices.

In a sense, one of the major real-life counterarguments to Francis Fukuyama's narrative on "the end of history" is the Chinese renaissance and its effects on the global system. Modernization, from a Chinese perspective, is not synonymous with Westernization.

On the spectrum ranging from confrontation to cooperation, from the Huntingtonian "clash of civilizations" to "the end of history", the nuances and complexities of geopolitical coexistence will most probably mark Sino-Western relations.

The West and China won't agree on everything but they have enough in common to recognize that dialogue and negotiation are the instruments to reduce their divergence and enlarge their convergence.

The world benefits from an open China such as the size of its market, the creation of economic value across continents and Sino-Western agreements to tackle threatening global issues.

For the West and also for Chinese forces of progress, the real danger to avoid is a Chinese return to a solitary course since it would initiate an era of deglobalization and abort the promise of the Chinese renaissance.

It is in this context that the Western political and economic leaders have to act as catalysts for China's opening-up. There is evident interaction between gaige (reform) and kaifang (opening-up) the two main themes of Deng Xiaoping's policy, but it is the level of opening-up that determines the nature and intensity of the reforms.

With the Belt and Road Initiative, an unprecedented outward-looking vision in the Chinese historical context, President Xi Jinping has undermined the conservative forces that would prosper in proportion with China's disconnect from the world. Xi has elevated Deng's policy of opening-up and has taken the country even further away from any complacent isolationism.

By suspecting the motives of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the US has missed an opportunity in China's opening-up. Although it has been more responsive to Xi's diplomatic initiative, the European Union could certainly be more proactive in the creation of synergies along the Afro-Eurasian axis.

In the mid-20th century Chinese leader Zhou Enlai put forward the notion of peaceful coexistence. In the 21st century, coexistence between the West and China has not only to be peaceful but can also be mutually transformative.

The forms that a mutually transformative coexistence can take are many but the EU is certainly positioned to be an effective catalyst of China's opening-up while China is potentially a powerful catalyst for more European cohesiveness.

China is at the dawn of a great entrepreneurship revolution. Last year, around 12,000 new companies were registered daily. The connection between Western and Chinese private entrepreneurs, which has to be supported and encouraged, ensures the continuation of China's opening up and creates new global economic and social values.

The author is director of the Academia Sinica Europaea at CEIBS, and founder of the Euro-China Forum and the New Silk Road Initiative. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

(China Daily Africa Weekly 07/08/2016 page10)