Continent prepares to go nuclear

Kenya, Nigeria, Morocco and South Africa - the only African nation with commercial reactors - seek international help

To power its industrial growth, Africa may have to turn to nuclear energy, says Mikhail Chudakov, deputy director-general at the department of nuclear energy of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Chudakov spoke recently at a public forum at Strathmore University, a private institution in Nairobi, after a recent push by Kenya to adopt the technology.

In September, the Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board, a state agency that is spearheading nuclear technology development, signed a partnership agreement with China General Nuclear Power Corp, the largest developer and builder of nuclear power plants, which oversees 56 percent of China's nuclear operating capacity, totaling 8.33 gigawatts.

The deal focuses on Kenya obtaining expertise through training and skills development, and technical support in areas such as site selection for nuclear plants, feasibility studies, safety analyses and environmental impact assessments. The country is seeking an installed capacity of 19,200 megawatts by 2030, officials say.

It joins three other African nations that have recently applied for the IAEA's technical help in implementing nuclear programs. The others are Nigeria, Morocco and South Africa, with the southernmost country hoping to add 9,600 mW of new nuclear capacity by 2030 to its current 1,830 mW, produced by three plants. It is the only African country with commercial nuclear power plants.

The continent is still far from bridging its energy gap despite recent moves to tap renewable energy. About 600 million Africans have no access to power in a population of over 1 billion.

In Kenya, only 40 percent of the 41 million population has access to electricity, with the country's current installed output standing at 2,298 MW. That's about 3.4 percent of the capacity of Yunnan province in Southwest China, which has a similar population of about 47 million, but an installed power capacity of 68 gW at the end of 2014.

While not brushing off proponents of renewable energy, Chudakov says nuclear power has proven to be clean and reliable. "Sites for hydro power are easily exhausted as they are limited in number and are susceptible to climatic conditions. Wind power sometimes is not dependable, while it occupies vast areas of land. Nuclear remains a viable option for developing countries," he says.

There are 444 nuclear plants in operation around the globe. Sixty-four are under construction, with two-thirds of them located in Asia.

China has 30 nuclear reactors in operation and a further 24 under construction, amounting to a threefold increase in the nation's nuclear capacity to at least 58 gW by 2021 and 150 gW by 2030, according to the China Nuclear Energy Association and international agencies.

Chudakov says research and development has advanced nuclear technology, making it safe. The international agency also has raised the bar on its safety check competency, he says. "This is also the only IAEA department that has over 800 employees who do constant site visits to evaluate safety regulations in nuclear plants."

If countries are to meet the target of limiting global warming to below an average of 2 C compared with pre-industrial levels by 2100, as agreed at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, nuclear power development will have to be increased, he says.

"We really do not have a choice for the future," says David Maina, director of the Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology at the University of Nairobi. "Kenya needs affordable and clean energy to industrialize and drive planned double-digit economic growth."

Maina says most countries that have achieved solid development are using nuclear power. He discounts those who are calling for increased adoption of renewable energy, saying green technology is expensive and not viable in the long run. "We do not need to fear when we can learn from China's successful stories," he says.

This year, the institute hosted scholars from Harbin Engineering University's College of Nuclear Science and Technology in Northeast China. "Kenya is fertile ground for partnerships," Maina says.

The Chinese institution presented proposals for training, an area Kenya is emphasizing. Winnie Ndubai, acting technical affairs director at the Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board, says: "After the signing, Harbin Engineering University, one of the best in the world, invited Kenyan students to join the institution for nuclear science and technology programs that would commence this year. Seven students have successfully applied," Ndubai says.

Maina estimates that Kenya will need about 700 employees trained once a nuclear reactor is commissioned. "A third of them will be technicians in specialized nuclear engineering fields," he says.

The University of Nairobi also plans to initiate similar programs. It takes five years to complete the first degree, Maina says, and successful candidates can then be sent overseas for specialization. "This will have to happen by 2027, when we expect the first reactor, a 1,000-mW plant, to be complete," he says.

Kenya is following a roadmap for introducing nuclear technology that takes 15 years of preparatory work, officials say. It follows an IAEA-phased guideline enabling a country to understand the commitments and obligations associated with deploying a safe, secure and sustainable nuclear power program.

Kenya has just completed the pre-feasibility study after evaluating its energy needs and deciding to implement the program.

"We are doing a reactor technology assessment. We are looking at what is available in the market against our needs. At the moment, our grid is still underdeveloped, and so the push for renewable technology will continue for some time as we expand our infrastructure," Ndubai says

Kenya's roadmap for adopting the technology has been dogged by concerns over financing, timing, capacity, security, sources and transportation of raw materials, and waste disposal.

But Maina says the country's foremost priority is safety. "This is paramount, and we are studying how available technologies are performing in various countries. We definitely would not choose the latest one, which has not been tested, nor an outdated one that may prove expensive to maintain in the long run," he says.

Maina emphasizes that Kenya's close collaboration with the IAEA is to ensure that robust safety mechanisms that meet international standards are put in place. "We are following closely the accidents that have happened, in Fukushima, and in Chernobyl in Ukraine 30 years ago," he says.

Capital costs are estimated at $44.05 billion for a 1,000-mW plant. Kenya's government says it hopes to partially finance implementation, with supplier countries paying the rest. The balance also could be financed through sponsor loans.

Kenya also may opt for more affordable technology, Chudakov says. China has brought smaller designs into the market that can supply 70 mW, he says. "China has finalized these designs, making it flexible for countries to implement different projects," he adds.

lucymorangi@chinadaily.com.cn

(China Daily Africa Weekly 04/29/2016 page25)