Economist: China's growth still envy of world

Value of the country's production would be like India growing 35 percent or the UK nearly 22 percent, inventor of BRIC acronym says

China is definitely on track in terms of real GDP growth, says Jim O'Neill, commercial secretary to the British Treasury, who in 2001 coined the acronym BRIC, grouping Brazil, Russia, India and China as potential growth powerhouses. South Africa was added nine years later to make it BRICS.

"China so far is growing more than I had assumed. If China grows by only 6.5 percent for the rest of the decade, it means it grew by 7.5 percent for the decade as a whole," O'Neill said at the 48 Group Chinese New Year Gala Dinner at the Dorchester Hotel in London on Jan 25.

The group is named after the 48 members of a British trade mission, known as the icebreakers, who went to China in 1954 for a number of groundbreaking deals.

If China's nominal GDP is translated into dollar terms, the incremental change in 2015 from the previous year is actually modest for China, about $400 billion, which he said is still almost like creating another South Africa.

"If that were to be the new rate of change, the path I originally talked about when China might become as big as the US would be slower. But in terms of the real GDP growth, it is very much on track and I wish the same were true for the other three BRIC countries." O'Neill adds.

The former Goldman Sachs chief economist is pleased that China is giving more importance to supply-side reform. O'Neill, now a member of the British House of Lords, was at Goldman Sachs from 1995 to 2013.

"It seems to us that the supply-side structural reforms of many sectors is something that China needs to do and it is really encouraging that the government is talking about this the way it is. I hope it will continue to adjust in a way that the latest data shows it is adjusting.

"The reforms will be helpful for China-UK trade relations, and will be in the interest of Britain," says O'Neill.

Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to the UK in October, achieving what many considered landmark results and opening what has been called a golden era for relations between China and the UK.

Putting China's new normal into perspective, China's 6.9 percent growth, at a volume of $10 trillion, is the equivalent of India growing by 35 percent or the United Kingdom growing by nearly 22 percent, so 6.9 percent is the envy of any developed country, according to O'Neill.

Liu Xiaoming, China's ambassador to Britain, gave a speech and also read a message at the gala from Meng Jianzhu, secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Committee of the CPC Central Committee, who praised the icebreakers' spirit, which has inspired generations of members of the 48 Group.

Liu said he was full of expectations for the new year, especially for China's development and enhanced China-UK relations.

"I have high expectations for continuous development in China in the new year. 2016 marks the beginning of China's 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020), which will help put China's growth on a more solid foundation and create opportunities for sustainable growth in the long run," said Liu.

Liu acknowledged that China is now at a crucial stage of economic change and upgrading.

"China's economy is entering a phase of what we call the new normal, with moderate growth but improved economic structure," he said.

wangmingjie@mail.chinadailyuk.com

(China Daily Africa Weekly 01/29/2016 page25)