2015 outlook

Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China

China GDP around 7 percent

Main predictions

Slowing China growth will hit resource-dependent economies, including many African countries.

Post-financial crisis recovery will be exposed as being fueled mainly by QE and not by real factors.

Equities and other commodities could take the lead from oil and also fall.

Chen Yuyu, associate professor of applied economics at Guanghua School of Management at Peking University

China GDP 7 to 7.5 percent

Main predictions

China growth likely to be steady.

Restructuring of the Chinese economy will be led by a surge of college graduates entering workforce.

The need to rapidly adjust to new technology will become a more pressing concern than the global financial crisis.

Jian Chang, chief China economist for Barclays, based in Hong Kong

China GDP 7 percent

Main predictions

China's growth on a downward step-change and will reach 5 to 6 percent in 2018.

Positive signs in 2015 that restructuring in China is taking place.

Deflation risk in Europe could negatively impact China.

Martyn Davies, CEO of Frontier Advisory

China GDP 7.5 percent

Main predictions

China growth in 2015 could accelerate rather than fall.

Some of the miracle economic growth rates in Africa of recent years will be exposed as merely resource-fueled.

Europe will become the new mediocre while a resurgent United States will drive global growth.

George Magnus, senior independent economist for UBS

China GDP 7 percent

Main predictions

Europe will remain on the brink of a recession.

Japan still carries warning signs for China not to follow the same mistakes.

Both 2015 and 2016 will be difficult years for the global economy.

Louis Kuijs, chief economist, Greater China, Royal Bank of Scotland

China GDP 7 percent

Main predictions

If Europe were to enter a recession it would have significant impact on China

RMB may need to fall if China's exports to Europe weaken.

Global economic growth could be considerably slower in the next 10 years than the last.

Oliver Barron, head of research for NSBO

China GDP 7 percent

Main predictions

China's economic slowdown will hurt European exports.

Japan economic problems will remain a warning sign that China must wean itself off property-driven growth.

Recovery from financial crisis will begin to look like a 20-year haul.

Duncan Innes-Ker, regional editor, Asia, The Economist Intelligence Unit

China GDP 7.1 percent

Main predictions

Germany's opposition to QE will make it difficult for the European Central Bank to avoid deflationary pressures.

Abenomics will continue to fail to spark the Japan economy.

Global economic recovery will become increasingly geographically divergent.

Gary Liu, executive deputy director of the CEIBS Lujiazui Institute of International Finance

China GDP 7 percent

Main predictions

If Europe moves into recession it will blow China's exports.

The failure of Abenomics will continue to haunt China unless it addresses its own real estate bubble.

Global financial looking like a 15- to 20-year event with the US recovery the only beacon of hope.

(China Daily Africa Weekly  01/02/2015 page5)