Never a dull moment

Market crashes and wars have marred past Years of the Horse while World Cup has been a constant

It would be almost impossible for history not to repeat itself during the Year of the wood Horse that starts on Jan 31.

That is because past years of the horse have brought great highs, lows and very little in between. Past horses have brought with them great crashes and surges. There has been tragedy and celebration.

There have been a couple of wars (most notably the invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent Gulf War) and a few oddities (the year of three popes in 1978). Of course, football World Cups are held in horse years.

In broad strokes, the Year of the Horse is thought to be a good year, as the heroic and strong nature of the animal brings with it many boons. But, astrologers warn, there is little middle ground. There will be success or failure but little in the way of status quo.

A look at past years of the horse suggests there is something to this all-or-nothing view of the world.

2002: Hu Jintao took over as the head of the fourth generation of leaders of the People's Republic of China during the last Year of the Horse. Interestingly, he was born during the Year of the Horse, 1942.

That same year, the United States launched Operation Anaconda, invading Afghanistan. Queen Elizabeth of the United Kingdom, the Queen Mother, died. The International Criminal Court was set up to prosecute those accused of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and crimes of aggression.

Stock markets crashed in North America, Asia and Europe when the Internet bubble burst after a decade of speculation.

The FIFA World Cup was held in South Korea and Japan and won by Brazil for the fifth time, a record.

The price of gold started powering upwards from $300 (222 euros) an ounce. The bull market would last until 2013 and see the price of an ounce get close to $2,000. Oil fluctuated around $25 per barrel.

1990: Continuing a process of opening up and reform that had started in the previous Year of the Horse, the Shanghai Stock Exchange was set up in China, administered by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

Elsewhere, the first McDonald's opened in the Soviet Union in Moscow and Nelson Mandela was freed. The Hubble Space Telescope was placed in orbit. Germany beat Argentina 1-0 to win the FIFA World Cup in Italy.

Iraq invaded Kuwait, launching the first Gulf War. Oil hit a record high above $40 per barrel in October. Margaret Thatcher resigned as prime minister of the UK while modern Singapore's founding father Lee Kuan Yew stepped aside for a younger generation.

Germany was reunified and the Human Genome Project to map the human body started. In the US, the Dow Jones average hits a record of 2878.56 on May 30. The price of gold moved in range through the year between $350 and $410. The price of oil climbed up to $23.73.

1978: Under Deng Xiaoping, China launched a polity of reopening to the outside world. China and Japan signed a peace treaty after decades of being at war and US president Jimmy Carter recognized the People's Republic of China.

Sweden took a first step toward dealing with the emerging concerns over greenhouse gasses when it became the first nation to ban aerosol sprays that were hurting the ozone layer.

Texas Instruments, a US company, patented the first "micro on a chip". The first chain bulk e-mail or spam was sent by Digital Equipment Corporation. Argentina won the FIFA World Cup by beating Holland 3-1.

Pope Paul VI died and John Paul I took over for 33 days before dying suddenly. John Paul II became new pope and stayed on the job for decades.

A 7.7 magnitude earthquake killed 25,000 in Iran. Egypt and Israel signed the Camp David Accords.

The price of gold started on a bull market and climbed about 30 percent through the year before lurching upward briefly. The correction, when it came, was in the order of 50 percent.

Oil moved in a similar fashion. Through this year, the price of oil doubled from about $14 in 1978 dollars to above $30.

1966: A highly unusual event marked the Year of the Fire Horse 1966 when a meteor entered the atmosphere and left it again. It was the only time this is known to have happened.

The Beatles performed their final concert. The first FIFA World Cup to feature a mascot and a logo was almost marred by the theft of the trophy in the run-up to the event. A dog named Pickles found it. England then took it home.

In stock markets, the Dow Jones started a 15-year decline, dropping 10 percent in 1966 alone but only after hitting a record high. Alan Greenspan, an economist, published a famous piece called Gold and Economic Freedom. At the time, the price of gold averaged at $35.13. Oil climbed slowly to $1.80.

1954: The Year of the Wood Horse saw the first meeting of the National People's Congress in Beijing that led to the approval of the Constitution of the People's Republic of China.

The Yangtze River also produced catastrophic flooding that killed an estimated 33,000 people.

Elsewhere, the first televised World Cup was held in Switzerland. West Germany won the tournament, beating Hungary 3-2 in the final in a match that became known in Germany as the "Miracle of Bern".

US stock markets did very well, rising by as much as 45 percent and hitting a new, post-Great Depression high. The price of gold, to which the US dollar was linked, was $35. The price of oil inched up to $1.93.

1942: Not a good year by any measure. World War II was raging. The camp at Auschwitz started the first of its mass gas executions.

Despite the war, Pan Am became the first commercial airline to fly around the world.

FIFA, the world soccer body, cancelled the World Cup amid the chaos of war. The price of gold was $35 an ounce on average. Oil stayed in the $1.20 range as production in North America picked up.

1930: In markets around the world, the Year of the Horse 1930 is known for the continuous drumbeat of depression.

The year was right in the middle of the worst stock market crash in history, one that lasted 813 days in the US and saw markets lose close to 90 percent of their value.

In China, Mao Zedong wrote the essay, A Single Spark Can Start a Prairie Fire, just weeks before the start of the Year of the Horse.

The first FIFA World Cup was played in Uruguay, which won the final match 4-2 against neighbor Argentina. The price of an ounce of gold was $20.66 on average. The great depression saw the price of oil drop down to $1.19.

1918: The Year of the Horse 1918 was marked by disease, as a pandemic of influenza hit almost a quarter of the population of the world and killed 100 million people. The Spanish flu pandemic, as it came to be known, had a wide impact around the world. To this day, nobody is certain where it started. Some have traced it back to a small town in Kansas, US. Others say it started in China.

The price of gold was about $19 an ounce. Amid the chaos of World War I, the price of oil doubled to close to $2 a barrel.

1906: The year started out fantastic for the Dow Jones, which, just before the Year of the Horse, reached a record 106 points. That high did not last, however. Before 1906 came to an end, the Dow was at 53, down by 50 percent. It ended up being the third worst stock market crash in US history. The price of gold averaged $18.90 an ounce. The price of oil dropped somewhat to 76 cents a barrel.

1894: In a positive sign for world sport, the Olympic Committee was founded in Paris and a decision is made to hold the Olympics every four years.

The price of gold averaged $18.94 an ounce while the price of oil fluctuated around 84 cents a barrel in contemporary dollars, which would equal to $20.74 in 2009 dollars.

Sadly, in the same year, the bubonic plague broke out in Canton (modern-day Guangzhou) in Guangdong province, and Hong Kong, killing 60,000 and 100,000 people respectively within a few weeks.

(China Daily Africa Weekly 01/31/2014 page18)