Momentum is shifting East in Africa

Number of young Ugandans wanting to study in China confirms growing trend, says think tank head

Tony O. Otoa believes Africa is shifting its focus away from the West and toward China.

The 32-year-old commentator and think tank chief says there has been a mind shift among African people in recent years as the world's second-largest economy has built a stronger economic relationship with the continent.

"Ten years ago, a lot of Africans thought it was very cool to go and study abroad such as in the UK or the US. Now many more are going to Asia and places like China and also Malaysia. This is a very definite trend," he says.

"I think parents are deliberately preparing their children for a situation in the future where dominance will come from the East and not the West."

Otoa was speaking under the late morning sun in the courtyard of Endiro coffee shop that is a popular haunt of young middle-class Ugandans in the Kisimenti district of Kampala.

A well-known figure locally, he makes reference to an article in the Sunday edition of the Red Pepper newspaper the day before, which he believes captures the current sentiment.

"It was a big two-page article, basically saying to hell with you the West. You might think you are the only destination but we have China now," he says.

Otoa, who is executive director of Great Lakes Public Affairs, a think tank and research consultancy, says the number of young Ugandans wanting to study in China is indicative of this trend. Up to 50 young Ugandans go on Chinese government scholarships every year but he says many more fund themselves.

"The ones that I know are self-sponsored. A friend of mine actually did his master's and undergraduate degrees there. His parents are just ordinary business people who own a hardware shop. They have another child who has also gone to China."

The increasing focus on China has been partly fueled by the growing trade relationship. Uganda's bilateral trade with China increased by 35 percent from its 2011 level of $400 million to $538 million last year.

Some 310 Chinese enterprises have invested $683 million in the country, creating 33,000 jobs for Ugandans.

One of the most talked about current Chinese investment, however, is in the oil sector.

China National Offshore Oil Corporation is awaiting the Ugandan government's approval for a deal that will give it a one-third share of major oil assets near Lake Albert in the west of the country. It is working alongside French oil giant Total and UK oil and gas exploration company Tullow.

Otoa, who was previously a coordinator for the Civil Society Coalition on Oil and Gas in Uganda, says CNOOC, with whom he organized several public meetings, has given lie to the idea that Chinese companies ride roughshod over local African interests.

"Chinese companies have been seen as companies that don't subscribe to human rights and so on and do deals with (African) governments sidelining their own people.

"How CNOOC has operated has been really different. They have tried to relate to the local community at every stage. We had a number of public meetings at which they were keen to get the views of society representatives and other stakeholders."

Otoa believes this kind of attention to public relations by the Chinese is beginning to contrast sharply in the minds of many Africans with the hectoring tone adopted by Western institutions such as the World Bank or major aid agencies.

"Donors have recently cut aid to Uganda because of the controversy relating to corruption scandals. This has been led by many European countries including Ireland.

"But, interestingly, China, which is also a donor and is involved with Uganda over development issues, has never raised any such red flag. The Chinese are into doing business and not getting into meddling with African politics," he says.

Otoa, who is from the city of Lira in northern Uganda and the son of a Sandhurst-trained army officer, had to flee into exile in Kenya in his youth as the political scene shifted in Uganda.

After returning to Uganda, his first job was as a political reporter and presenter with the radio station Monitor FM.

This led him to become the secretary-general of the Ugandan Parliamentary Press Association, where one of his roles was to act as spokesman for reporters in parliament, at the age of just 22.

Otoa had delayed attending university but he then decided to go to the UK and take a bachelor's degree in international relations, communications and the media at Oxford Brookes University. This was followed by a master's in law at the same university.

After coming back, he first worked as a coordinator for the CSCO before setting up GLPA, which now employs six people and is a renowned think tank. Key figures in the organization include Irene Tumwebaze, who heads work on environmental law and climate change; and Joseph Kiggundu, who deals with business and investment issues.

Otoa says one of the aims of GLPA is to bring some sense to mainstream political debate in Uganda and move it away from some of the reactionary politics of the past.

"We are trying to think afresh and think of ways to get people involved and talking. We want to get away from those who appeal to people who say that 'we brought you from the bush and gave you freedom and therefore you should vote for us'. There is a much more intelligent debate to be had," he says.

Otoa acknowledges that part of the debate is Africa's role in the world and whether there is now a need to pivot more toward the East.

He believes Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has set out his own view as to where the momentum lies.

"It is almost commonplace now for the president to bash the colonial masters, the likes of England and the United States, and it is for that reason you see him make more trips now to China and also Russian and Iran," he says.

"You never see him at any time talk about how the West is going to help. He spends much of his time in dialogue with Eastern countries. This has included people like (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and (outgoing Iranian president Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad as well as the Chinese."

Otoa says looking for an alternative to Western influence is not a recent development but has been going on for some time.

"Initially it was Dubai. It was seen as the best alternative and the best place to obtain goods to bring into the country. Now, however, you are seeing this sudden massive interest in China.

"I know many people in the business community who are sourcing raw materials and products from China. Many are setting up freight forwarding operations in China to facilitate trade. The trade between the two countries (Uganda and China) is now enormous."

Otoa says trade with Asia and elsewhere is vital for a country like Uganda if it is to continue on its development path.

"The Ugandan economy has grown massively over the years but there is some sense of stagnation now. You have to ask yourself what is the point of Africa rising if the people are down and not really rising themselves."

Otoa has no doubt that if people's incomes are to rise then there has to be a focus on developing agriculture and manufacturing, which was the basis of China's growth more than 30 years ago and also that of other Asian growth economies.

"At present we are putting too much emphasis on the service sector and not enough on agriculture, which is actually a massive opportunity for us," he says.

"If you look at the ways other countries have developed, like China, and that means building our agricultural and manufacturing capabilities."

Contact the writers at andrewmoody@chinadaily.com.cn and zhaoyanrong@chinadaily.com.cn

(China Daily Africa Weekly 06/21/2013 page8)