Typhoon Karen can bring ASEAN closer

A man walks through gale-force winds as Typhoon Haima makes landfall on the South China coast, in Hong Kong, October 21, 2016. [Photo/IC]

ASEAN member countries followed Rodrigo Duterte’s visit to China carefully this week but will also be keeping a second eye on the Philippine island of Luzon, which was struck by Typhoon Karen last Saturday. The storm might bring ASEAN closer towards regional integration. The quick response and timely evacuation shows the nation, with the support of ASEAN, is much better prepared to tackle natural threats than previously.

This has implications not only for ASEAN integration but for the trading bloc’s future talks with China which have been scuppered by disagreements in recent months. Last week, the Enquirer, a Philippines’ newspaper, was able to report Typhoon Karen in granular detail, the positions of evacuees, the actions taken by the disaster risk reduction and management council in Quezon City and the number of people still in danger. And this information should not be taken for granted, it was not so long ago that this information would be unavailable, and local councils would have to respond as best they could under the circumstances. The “pre-emptive evacuation of 291 families” was not only well planned, but apparently well communicated to senior members of the disaster management council and the general public.

By comparison, the devastating effects of Typhoon Yolanda (also known as Haiyan), in November 2013, was not only a terrible tragedy, but also damning evidence of communication failures in the Philippines at the time. One of the first articles from the Enquirer on the first day of the typhoon reported that the nation “appeared to avoid a major disaster.” Just 24 hours later, the Enquirer reported that more than 10,000 were feared dead. Communication during disasters is extremely difficult and can often lead to hearsay, rumor and poor response times. Yolanda was a catastrophic tragedy, but it also marked an important change in regional thinking towards pragmatically responding to, and mitigating disasters. Misleading reporting by the Enquirer was caused by a lack of access to reliable information from government officials as ineffective early warnings systems were compounded by a lack of preparedness.

Since Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008, which killed more than 130,000, ASEAN has been developing an Emergency Rapid Assessment Team. Disaster response and preparation is managed by each ASEAN member individually, but they meet regularly to discuss policy and best practice through the ASEAN Humanitarian Assistance (AHA) Centre set up in 2011. This has allowed members to share a constant stream of information especially in weather forecasts and multi-hazard mapping. Importantly, it has also allowed countries to share ideas and improve response times and establish best practice in the region evidenced by the organised and prepared response to Karen, by comparison to Yolanda in 2013.

The southeast coast of China is also vulnerable to weather related disasters such as typhoons, and China will be following progress in ASEAN’s integration and communication methods on this topic closely. Rodrigo Duterte’s visit to Beijing may leave some opportunity for increased pan-Asian collaboration in the future. This is particularly surprising since many of the surrounding nations share the experience of typhoons, floods and earthquakes. The recent establishment of the National Institute of Emergency Management (NIEM) has allowed China to broaden its disaster management vision and increase the number of publications in English. The NIEM has sought to enhance China’s engagement on disaster management with ASEAN. A program established in 2013 brought Thai and Chinese experts to training programs for disaster management officials and practitioners, and increased disaster management networking between ASEAN countries and China.

Commentators have noted the lack of funding for the AHA in Southeast Asia as a point of weakness, and it has marred the centre’s ability to implement an effective program of “building disaster-resilient nations into actions and initiatives focusing particularly on the most vulnerable high risk communities,” part of ASEAN’s Vision 2025. By comparison Chinese policy makers have successfully established state-of-the-art operating systems, including three unmanned drones, to monitor natural phenomena. Future discussions between ASEAN, China and the Philippines may include investment in disaster management as a relatively simple first step towards greater regional integration.

It is rare that disaster management is brought up specifically during political visits, however, it is a point of common ground between the two nations, both keen to keep minimise the damage from natural catastrophes. Crucially, Duterte will be searching for objective common ground, particularly given disputes in the South China Sea. Disaster management belies the notion of national maritime borders as typhoons and earthquakes are territorially indiscriminate. This common threat has already improved early warning systems across Southeast Asia, ASEAN relations, and has saved lives. It may be a point of reconciliation between China and the Philippines in future. If disagreements derive from geographic tensions, then perhaps solutions lie there as well.

The author is a master's student in international relations at Peking University, with focus on Southeast Asia and Central Asia.