Analysts upbeat on China's economic growth in 2024

Analysts, both domestic and foreign, foresee a promising outlook for China's macroeconomic stability, expecting increased investment, sustained consumer recovery and potential export improvements, the Securities Daily reported on Tuesday.

Their upbeat feeling toward China's economic growth in 2024 is based on key macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics for November, which showcased encouraging year-on-year growth rates across various sectors.

Industrial value-added output, service sector production, total retail sales of consumer goods and fixed-asset investment all exhibited increased growth rates compared to October.

The basic trend of China's economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed, said an official from the Office of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs recently during an interview.

As the conditions for supporting high-quality development continue to gather, confidence and resolve need to be strengthened, the official added.

Yang Delong, chief economist of First Seafront Fund, said the fundamental trend of China's economy toward long-term improvement remain unchanged.

China's economic resurgence is coupled with robust advancements in high-quality development, with improvements in constructing a modern industrial system and breakthroughs in technological innovation, Yang added.

Both the structural and cyclical policies need to be implemented to foster economic growth in 2024, said Zhang Wenlang, chief macroeconomic analyst with investment bank China International Capital Corp.

Moreover, several foreign financial institutions have expressed confidence in China's economic trajectory.

China's economic growth is expected to improve in the second half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of around 4.3 percent to 4.7 percent, said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, a global investment management company.

It is expected that minor fiscal policy relaxations within the next year will help stabilize growth rates, Hooper said.

Salman Ahmed, Fidelity's global head of macro and strategic asset allocation, said China has entered into a recovery phase and anticipated a near 5 percent economic growth rate for the year 2024.

The effects of policy implementations introduced in July seem promising, leading to expectations of economic stabilization in 2024, Ahmed said in the Global Investment Outlook 2024 report.

In the future, macro policy efforts should be enhanced and coordination of various policies should be strengthened, in a bid to better implement economic policies, said Xiong Yi, chief economist of Deutsche Bank China.

He expects that China's GDP growth target will be a crucial factor for future trends, with a projected growth rate of 4.7 percent for 2024.

The official from the CCFEA also stressed the significance of strengthening demand-side management in 2024 to stimulate consumption, investment and exports, ensuring optimal utilization of production capacities.

Domestic institutions are optimistic about the performance of China’s consumption and investment sectors in 2024.

Zhao Wei, chief economist of Sinolink Securities, said a virtuous cycle of consumption and investment that promotes one another may be the key direction for tapping the potential of consumption in the upcoming year.

Consumer-driven demand growth is expected to fuel investments in related sectors, fostering a balanced supply-demand cycle, said Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank.